Is Vladimir Putin capable of coming to terms with the mounting concerns over the state-of-affairs in Russia brought about by his war in Ukraine? His predilection for conflict has dominated policy throughout most of his 25 years in leadership beginning with his war in Chechnya (1999 – 2009), and followed by incursion into Georgia (2008), the Donbas War (2014 – 2022), the Syrian Civil War (2015 – 2024), to the invasion of Ukraine (2022 – present). The strategy has maintained Putin’s version of the historic Russian “strong-man” ethos at the helm of Russia’s destiny, one in which the nation’s security comes at the expense of individual freedom. In the process, Putin has ensured for himself the power once possessed by his tsarist ancestors but now with the added benefit of a much more sophisticated internal security apparatus. The problem confronting him in this present moment is the wall he has run into both militarily and economically. The question confronting Russians now must revolve around whether Putin is mentally capable of overcoming his own shortcomings to save the country from ruin.
Putin has shown himself well-suited for the role of an authoritarian or, in plain-speak, dictator. He possesses the required mix of personality disorders that have come to define his particular psychopathy. Foremost among these perhaps is his narcissism exemplified by a remarkable hubris and corresponding sense of superiority wherein his judgment and decisions cannot be questioned. He commands a presence with stately ostentation as he struts into the St. George Hall of the Grand Kremlin Palace to address his government or when presiding over grand military parades reminiscent of those of his Soviet mentors. He berates his oligarchs for their self-serving manner while maintaining a lifestyle of his own with palatial retreats, yachts and numerous privileges that would draw the envy of his imperial predecessors.
Photo Credit: Vladimir Astapkovich, RIA Novosti
Another notable aspect of Putin’s mental condition is a level of paranoia that has demanded extraordinary efforts to appease. One of the more dramatic features of this condition was revealed in comic fashion during the COVID pandemic when he was seen seated at the head of a ridiculously long table to discuss affairs with visitors placed at the opposite end. Before entering the room, visitors were reportedly required to travel through a “disinfection tunnel.” Extensive measures are taken in Russia to mask his location that involve body doubles among other evasive precautions as when travelling through the streets of Moscow or other destinations. Routes are entirely vacated of public traffic, electronic jamming is instituted, and decoys are deployed with Putin isolated in his armored limousine nestled within a convoy protected by elite hand-picked armed guards. A reported secret railway network was created with parallel lines and stations to his Moscow residence and Sochi resort along the Black Sea. The latter site is also guarded exclusively by missile defense systems.
Putin reacts to foreign challenges by habitually threatening nuclear retaliation when he perceives any impediment to his war in Ukraine. Tending to such extremes reflects an emotional imbalance and, worse, an impulsive behavior driven by anger causing him to retaliate often against those most vulnerable. He shows an obvious disregard for what distinguishes right from wrong and consistently violates the rights of others which speaks to his antisocial credentials. There is no desire for him to restrain his military from inflicting suffering upon Ukraine’s civilian population or to demonstrate overt cruelty in order to intimidate his victims. Such monumental detachment reflects the depth of Putin’s derangement in the conduct of a sadistic war in service to his ego and his solitary unjustifiable mission of subjugating a neighboring nation.
Photo Credit: Viacheslav Tykhanskyi
Numerous domestic assassinations have been carried out for a variety of reasons but with the end result of securing Putin’s peace-of-mind. The most noteworthy have been those of Yevgeny Prigozhin, leader of the Wagner paramilitary group turned regime critic, in August 2023, and Alexei Navalny past leader of Russian political opposition, in February 2024. A complete list of the many victims cannot be adequately compiled given the nature of Russia’s secretive police state but other notable killings during Putin’s earlier years have included the investigative journalist, Anna Politkovskaya, in 2006 for exposing Russia’s human rights abuses in Chechnya, and opposition leader and Putin critic, Boris Nemtsov in 2015. Otherwise, a substantial list of suspicious deaths has accumulated dramatically in recent years, many if not all related in some way to his war in Ukraine, and should not be forgotten.
As the outcome of Putin’s war has shifted increasingly in Ukraine’s favor, so has the paranoia. Security around him has been significantly enhanced, notably with the strengthening of the Russian National Guard (Rosgvardia). The agency was separated from the Ministry of Defense and its director given independent operational control with direct reporting to Putin. The move emerged initially in reaction to the 2023 Prigozhin mutiny but the nature of the organization has since transformed from a policing agency into an actual military force to resemble a praetorian guard whose mission is to protect the regime and its leader internally. Moreover, it has been provided heavy combat equipment, including infantry fighting vehicles and tanks, and allowed to recruit former Wagner and Chechen paramilitary fighters. The force has ostensibly been “battle-hardened” by deployment in the Donbas, albeit in a rearguard security role.
Domestic digital surveillance has been expanded to include Russian teens under the category of “terrorists and extremists.” It registered 341 minors in 2025, more than double the number of the previous year. The 2025 list entered an additional 4,018 names overall, a 26% increase from 2024. Online searches by the public for information vaguely judged “extremist” is now surveilled with individuals punished commensurate to the extent of their searches. Repression in Russian society has escalated significantly, again particularly in 2025, targeting anti-war activists, human rights advocates, lawyers, and journalists. Violence has become normalized and counter-terrorism activity enhanced to silence dissent to the war. Torture was reported in 258 documented cases in 2024-2025 by the UN Special Rapporteur who added that, “Justice inside Russia is unattainable.”
Where has this psychopathy led and where will it take Russia and the global order? Putin’s actions have had far-reaching consequences from impoverishing Russia to undermining European security through his influence upon the Trump administration and finding ways to diminish American influence globally. His conduct and behavior in the course of the war in Ukraine remains the most compelling argument underlying Putin’s state-of-mind. Typical of a narcissist, he has maintained an unyielding focus upon the desired outcome of achieving dominion over Ukraine in the face of massive military sacrifice and in the absence of any substantive territorial gain. This rigidity of purpose has also been apparent during negotiations in which he has consistently refused to make concessions to end the conflict that might lessen his chances of returning for another attempt to invade Ukraine.
So, where does that leave Russia as Putin now is requiring Russians to assume the cost of the war through taxation in the absence of sufficient financing from oil export? The latter once reliable source of funding has been crippled by international sanctions, increased seizure of illegal shadow fleet vessels and extensive destruction of oil refineries, depots and port facilities by Ukraine.
One of the more obvious problems in Russian society that has manifested over the past decade but now has been dramatically accelerated by the current war has been its population decline. The birthrate has fallen annually since 2015 and, in 2025, reached historic lows as fertility rates fell to 1.4 births per woman, a drop of more than 20% over the decade and well below the 2.1 births per woman needed to simply sustain the current population. Russian women have been forgoing motherhood because of an uncertain future attributable to the war that has created economic instability and a lack of adequate housing in the presence of high mortgage rates of 29.2% per annum. Overall interest rates are currently at 15.5% raising the cost of living while food shortages have worsened due to inflationary pressures and declining investment by as much as 46% in new food industry ventures.
The COVID-19 pandemic brought attention to the inadequacy of Russia’s health care system and lack of coordination with government agencies to achieve control over its spread. As a result, Russia had one of the worst COVID mortality rates in the world. By July 2021, more than 5.6 million cases were officially registered and 500,000 deaths recorded although much has likely remained undocumented in the outer reaches of the Russian Federation. A year later, with the invasion of Ukraine in full swing, a conservative estimate of at least 250,000 men subject to military draft fled Russia after Putin’s announcement of partial mobilization in September 2022. This followed upon waves of emigration earlier in the year estimated to number another 200,000.
Four years later, records indicate that 1,000,000 had left Russia with as many as 850,000 remaining in self-exile. Russia’s population had already dropped from 144.7 million in 2021 to 143.5 million by 2024 with births in the first quarter of 2025 seen to be the lowest for the period since the late 18th to early 19th centuries. Add to all this, another 325,000 Russian servicemen killed in Ukraine since February, 2022 and one can appreciate why, in 2024, deaths outnumbered births by about 600,000.
Russia’s population is not only shrinking with current projections indicating a drop to 135.8 million by 2050, it’s rapidly aging as a result not only of declining birth rates but, more acutely, the impact of recent emigration and military losses. Affected primarily are the younger age groups that will reflect ultimately not only in the loss of intellectual and innovative potential but in a notable reduction of the workforce which, in turn, will place pressure on pension payments and healthcare delivery for a senior population increasing substantially in number. The current labor force has already been reduced by upward of 1.9 million working-age people and is projected to shrink by upward of 10 million by 2045.
Russia’s current military predicament centers upon its inability to rely on “voluntary” recruitment to make up for the rate of casualties in Ukraine. Putin is ready to proceed with a rolling compulsory mobilization of reservists to sustain combat operations, hoping to otherwise avoid a large-scale mobilization and raise the specter of widespread public outcry or worse, another mass exodus of its youth.
Russia’s population crisis is by no means the only serious situation being visited upon the country. It has been largely isolated from the West and increasingly dependent on a narrow set of allies that may come up short on the sort of support that Putin had intended. Xi Jinping, of course, has his own agenda. He has been happy to receive Russia’s oil at discounted rates while watching it contend with the West and the U.S., deflecting attention away from his local interests in the East. Iran’s regime, likewise, currently at war with the U.S. and Israel, has more pressing issues. Despite the 2025 Comprehensive Strategic Partnership agreement between Iran and Russia, there is little interest by Russia to come to Iran’s aid. Hence, not much may be expected in return.
The war has brought Russia’s economy to stagnation with 30% of its companies reported to be unprofitable in 2025, accounting for losses of $100 billion. The past year ended with Russia’s regions recording a budget deficit exceeding $20 billion because of the country’s overall economic decline. The gap between revenues and expenditures is now about five times greater than was forecast by the Ministry of Finance. Nothing remains for regional development leaving agencies such as healthcare floundering when the country’s standing had already been ranked 57th out of 89 countries for health care delivery in the 2025 Health Care Index.
A recent economic analysis in Defense News assessed the cost of Russia’s war in lost human capital, destroyed military assets and economic damage to be $2.5 trillion, a figure exceeding the country’s annual GDP. The analysis appears to have excluded Ukraine’s destruction of Russia’s oil industry infrastructure which alone resulted in the loss of $13 billion and its military industrial facilities located throughout the Russian Federation.
The outlook for Russia in its current state is unsustainable and its place in the global community, with few exceptions, is reduced to that of a pariah. It is beset with an uncertain future that may ultimately see it fail catastrophically much in the way it occurred just 35 years ago. All of this is attributable to the mental state of a single individual who has driven his nation to the brink of collapse and all for the purpose of attempting to reclaim the questionable glory of an imperial past. Putin has committed himself to a task that he is seemingly incapable of abandoning in spite of foreseeable calamity. He alone will carry the blame, but it will be Russia’s future that will suffer the consequences.
Copyright @Kost Elisevich, MD, PhD 2026. All rights reserved. Any illegal reproduction of this content will result in immediate legal action.
