Russia, the Broken

Societies are most noticeably disrupted when the regime collapses in a violent coup, a revolution, or is defeated in war. Great empires fall prey to calamity when they run out of the energy that once fueled the dynamism of their origin and sewed the fabric of their society. The insidious process that seems often to lead to these outcomes may be recognized when authoritarian rulers, with their own self-interests in mind, undertake efforts to monopolize power by denying citizens their rights. They do so by undermining independent media, exerting control over the legislative powers meant to directly serve the people, populating the judiciary with justices aligned more with the goals of the executive than the Constitution and by growing a powerful upper class of wealth that facilitates the necessary control of society. After some time has passed, patriotic songs lose their ardor against the backdrop of repression, corruption, disinformation, a massively disproportionate wealth gap, and a decaying social infrastructure. Financial ruin, economic despair, and a failing war effort will accelerate the decline, leaving society in search of hope for a better future that now appears beyond reach. … More Russia, the Broken

Vladimir Putin and the Hill He is Drawn to Die Upon

Is Vladimir Putin capable of coming to terms with the mounting concerns over the state-of-affairs in Russia brought about by his war in Ukraine? His predilection for conflict has dominated policy throughout most of his 25 years in leadership beginning with his war in Chechnya (1999 – 2009), and followed by incursion into Georgia (2008), the Donbas War (2014 – 2022), the Syrian Civil War (2015 – 2024), to the invasion of Ukraine (2022 – present). The strategy has maintained Putin’s version of the historic Russian “strong-man” ethos at the helm of Russia’s destiny, one in which the nation’s security comes at the expense of individual freedom. In the process, Putin has ensured for himself the power once possessed by his tsarist ancestors but now with the added benefit of a much more sophisticated internal security apparatus. The problem confronting him in this present moment is the wall he has run into both militarily and economically. The question confronting Russians now must revolve around whether Putin is mentally capable of overcoming his own shortcomings to save the country from ruin. … More Vladimir Putin and the Hill He is Drawn to Die Upon

Putin’s Odds (Part 1) – The Dissonance of War and Economy

Russia’s war of aggression in Ukraine is beset by a confluence of several factors, some apparent and others not so much, each with their own dynamic and shifting significance. The thing about chaos is its relative unpredictability in acute circumstances. The consequent unpredictability makes it difficult to foresee where and when a point of criticality is reached that will dictate an end to the conflict or determine a clear and inevitable path to that end. … More Putin’s Odds (Part 1) – The Dissonance of War and Economy