Overview of Current Global and Regional Aspects Concerning Russia’s War in Ukraine
Part II: Russia and Europe

April 6, 2026

Russia has long engaged in a campaign of disinformation, government and electoral interference and outright sabotage in Europe. It has done so in an attempt to weaken resolve and undermine NATO defensive coordination. The disappointing performance of Russia’s military during the past year and the precarious state of its economy is likely to place greater emphasis upon its need to at least succeed with its malign efforts in Europe at large. It must do so in order that it not expose itself to what it perceives to be even greater vulnerabilities to its west. Much of this is perception more than it is reality, but Russia remains immersed in its own propaganda that the West presents an eternal threat to its existence. The reality, in fact, is that the regime itself, more than the nation it rules, feels threatened and is prepared to take what action is needed to preserve itself whatever the consequences for its people. … More Overview of Current Global and Regional Aspects Concerning Russia’s War in Ukraine Part II: Russia and Europe

Overview of Current Global and Regional Aspects Concerning Russia’s War in Ukraine
Part I: Two Wars                  

April 1, 2026

The new war in the Persian Gulf has altered circumstances globally and has once more brought to light Vladimir Putin’s contempt for the United States. Other events in play have more to do with Putin’s war in Ukraine and Russia’s interference in the broader scope of the European theater. A new Spring dawns on a troubled continent in a year that will prove decisive for its security as it relates to Putin’s mental state, his need for conflict and his own survival. A rapidly changing geopolitical dynamic is in play, attributable to the unpredictability of Trump’s war with Iran and Putin’s need to perpetuate his war in Ukraine as Russia’s own future appears in jeopardy. Both wars are ones of choice although one has thus far consistently shown itself to be intentionally criminal in its conduct with both its aerial and ground assaults targeting a civilian population. … More Overview of Current Global and Regional Aspects Concerning Russia’s War in Ukraine Part I: Two Wars                  

Vladimir Putin and the Hill He is Drawn to Die Upon

March 4, 2026

Is Vladimir Putin capable of coming to terms with the mounting concerns over the state-of-affairs in Russia brought about by his war in Ukraine? His predilection for conflict has dominated policy throughout most of his 25 years in leadership beginning with his war in Chechnya (1999 – 2009), and followed by incursion into Georgia (2008), the Donbas War (2014 – 2022), the Syrian Civil War (2015 – 2024), to the invasion of Ukraine (2022 – present). The strategy has maintained Putin’s version of the historic Russian “strong-man” ethos at the helm of Russia’s destiny, one in which the nation’s security comes at the expense of individual freedom. In the process, Putin has ensured for himself the power once possessed by his tsarist ancestors but now with the added benefit of a much more sophisticated internal security apparatus. The problem confronting him in this present moment is the wall he has run into both militarily and economically. The question confronting Russians now must revolve around whether Putin is mentally capable of overcoming his own shortcomings to save the country from ruin. … More Vladimir Putin and the Hill He is Drawn to Die Upon

The Choreography of the Current Ukraine – Russia – U.S. “Peace Talks”

February 8, 2026

The second round of trilateral peace negotiations were held in Abu Dhabi on February 4-5, 2026, following initial talks that had occurred on January 23-24, 2026. A week-long U.S.-brokered ceasefire sparing, specifically, energy infrastructure was announced by the Trump administration on January 29 and would be in effect preceding this second round of talks at a time when winter temperatures had fallen dramatically. Moscow’s interpretation of the ceasefire, however, gave it four days at best and would only involve Kyiv whereas Ukraine was seemingly obliged to give consideration for all of Russia. True to form, during the night of February 2-3, Russia launched upwards of 450 drones and more than 70 missiles, 32 of which were ballistic missiles, specifically targeting energy facilities across 27 sites in at least six regions of Ukraine, disrupting water, electricity and heat. More than 1,170 apartment buildings in Kyiv alone lost heat when outside temperatures had fallen to -4 deg F (-20 deg C). The following night saw a similar attack damaging residential buildings and schools with several casualties. That these attacks heralded the second round of “peace talks” speaks to Vladimir Putin’s disregard for attempts to seek a solution to a war in which he and his Kremlin colleagues continue to perpetuate war crimes that have cumulatively amounted to calls of genocide. … More The Choreography of the Current Ukraine – Russia – U.S. “Peace Talks”

From Moldova to Crimea Lies an Uncertain Future for Russia

January 22, 2026

A changing situation exists along coastal Ukraine, Moldova, its neighbor to the west, and Crimea in the east. It threatens the unwitting Russian intruder more than the nations it has menaced.

Russia escalated its aerial assault upon Ukraine’s major coastal city and seaport, Odesa, beginning in December, 2025 and continuing into 2026. The city has considerable strategic value as Ukraine’s major throughway for foreign trade accounting for 65% of its imports and exports. Its rail connections, in turn, extend nationally to provide for both the efficient concentration of goods for export and quick distribution of imported needs. In its usual fashion, Russia has destroyed residential buildings, hospitals, electrical and heating substations, water supplies and bridges, resulting in more than 60 casualties thus far along with protracted power outages and exposure to the current winter’s extreme cold. … More From Moldova to Crimea Lies an Uncertain Future for Russia

When Rhetoric Clouds the Realities of Russia’s War 
Part II: The Elusive “Ironclad” Security Guarantee

December 19, 2025

The term, “security guarantee,” brings with it a sense of comfort provided a vulnerable nation by other nations with assurances that substantial force will be brought to bear upon an aggressor that threatens its well-being. When the vulnerable nation is not made a member of a group like NATO whose charter expressly defines the obligations of all members to intervene in an expected manner, such “security guarantees” become, over time, a matter of debate, or worse, of inconvenience. … More When Rhetoric Clouds the Realities of Russia’s War Part II: The Elusive “Ironclad” Security Guarantee

When Rhetoric Clouds the Realities of Russia’s War 
Part I: Underestimation

December 8, 2025

It’s easy to understand how the current American buffoonery, clearly manifested at the negotiating table, might make one deeply cynical of diplomacy when it’s seen to be geared toward benefiting the aggressor and an outside dealmaker rather than the victim of the aggression and its supportive neighbor, Europe. The nature of the proposed settlement for ending Russia’s war upon Ukraine seems only to forestall an inevitable resumption of hostility given the historical unreliability of security guarantees, particularly when it comes to Russia. Parallels are seen with the Trump Administration’s recent bungling of trade agreements with China in wild pursuit of bargains in the absence of more thoughtful long-term benefits. … More When Rhetoric Clouds the Realities of Russia’s War Part I: Underestimation

Winter Comes to Moscow

November 25, 2025

A fourth year of war is nearing an end and whereas the aggressor nation has experienced comparatively little of the physical trauma associated with this conflict, circumstances have changed in the current year enough to threaten the Russian Federation’s (RF) own survival. For Vladimir Putin, however, it is not the sentiment of the inhabitants within the broad scope of the RF that matters as much as those who dwell in Moscow. The Russian capital is under threat and not just from imposed international economic sanctions, mounting financial strain, and war fatigue, but to more direct elements that will undermine both civil life and the Kremlin’s authority. And perhaps it’s time for American media to take more notice of Russia’s many vulnerabilities as it contemplates an end to the war. … More Winter Comes to Moscow

Ukraine is Europe’s Hammer

October 12, 2025

It is in Europe’s interest to redirect Vladimir Putin’s attention away from his multifaceted hybrid warfare scheme designed to intimidate European nations for their support of Ukraine. That can be accomplished by manifestly threatening Russia’s hold on Ukrainian territories it has occupied, specifically Crimea. Ukraine has been in open conflict with Russia now for more than 3.5 years and has demonstrated its military capability to inflict massive injury upon the Russian invader. Europe therefore has its hammer to retaliate should it choose to use it to good effect. The means to this end rests in supplying Ukraine with the necessary munitions sufficient to isolate the Crimean peninsula and force the surrender of any remaining Russian forces no longer able to evacuate the territory. Russia’s loss of Crimea would be the first step in retaking the remaining territories and bringing about the collapse of Putin’s regime for its failure to accomplish its goal of subduing Ukraine while, in the process, neglecting the welfare of his own people. … More Ukraine is Europe’s Hammer

Putin’s ‘End of Days’

September 23, 2025

All the foreseeable advantages afforded Russia since its ill-fated 2022 invasion of Ukraine have been disappearing at an accelerative rate. The illusion of its military prowess with its limitless manpower and technological capabilities should have begun to raise doubts soon after the war began when it met the reality of Ukraine’s two counteroffensives in the latter part of 2022. More to say about the ongoing war immediately below but for Vladimir Putin, military failure is not his worst problem. It’s what awaits him in the last quarter of 2025. A fate reminiscent of the fall of the Russian Empire in 1917 and the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991 hangs in the balance before him now and may ultimately usher the despot and all his ugliness to an ignominious end. … More Putin’s ‘End of Days’