Russia’s World of Lies, Repression and its Breaking Point

Russian leadership has had a long history of lying to its people over the past century, more so than most other regimes. Its deceit has manifested in a variety of ways, the most egregious of which in recent times has been Vladimir Putin’s euphemistic “special military operation” (SMO). In actuality, it was a full-scale invasion of the second-largest nation by territory in Europe with the intent of overthrowing its government and installing a pro-Russian regime thereby returning it to the status of a dependent republic. An estimated 190,000 troops were gathered over the course of four months on Ukraine’s border on the pretense of a military drill similar to what was enacted less than a year previously. In January 2022, Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov proclaimed Russia did not want war with Ukraine and yet without any trigger in the interim, it happened. … More Russia’s World of Lies, Repression and its Breaking Point

Vladimir Putin and the Hill He is Drawn to Die Upon

Is Vladimir Putin capable of coming to terms with the mounting concerns over the state-of-affairs in Russia brought about by his war in Ukraine? His predilection for conflict has dominated policy throughout most of his 25 years in leadership beginning with his war in Chechnya (1999 – 2009), and followed by incursion into Georgia (2008), the Donbas War (2014 – 2022), the Syrian Civil War (2015 – 2024), to the invasion of Ukraine (2022 – present). The strategy has maintained Putin’s version of the historic Russian “strong-man” ethos at the helm of Russia’s destiny, one in which the nation’s security comes at the expense of individual freedom. In the process, Putin has ensured for himself the power once possessed by his tsarist ancestors but now with the added benefit of a much more sophisticated internal security apparatus. The problem confronting him in this present moment is the wall he has run into both militarily and economically. The question confronting Russians now must revolve around whether Putin is mentally capable of overcoming his own shortcomings to save the country from ruin. … More Vladimir Putin and the Hill He is Drawn to Die Upon

When Rhetoric Clouds the Realities of Russia’s War 
Part II: The Elusive “Ironclad” Security Guarantee

The term, “security guarantee,” brings with it a sense of comfort provided a vulnerable nation by other nations with assurances that substantial force will be brought to bear upon an aggressor that threatens its well-being. When the vulnerable nation is not made a member of a group like NATO whose charter expressly defines the obligations of all members to intervene in an expected manner, such “security guarantees” become, over time, a matter of debate, or worse, of inconvenience. … More When Rhetoric Clouds the Realities of Russia’s War Part II: The Elusive “Ironclad” Security Guarantee

When Rhetoric Clouds the Realities of Russia’s War 
Part I: Underestimation

It’s easy to understand how the current American buffoonery, clearly manifested at the negotiating table, might make one deeply cynical of diplomacy when it’s seen to be geared toward benefiting the aggressor and an outside dealmaker rather than the victim of the aggression and its supportive neighbor, Europe. The nature of the proposed settlement for ending Russia’s war upon Ukraine seems only to forestall an inevitable resumption of hostility given the historical unreliability of security guarantees, particularly when it comes to Russia. Parallels are seen with the Trump Administration’s recent bungling of trade agreements with China in wild pursuit of bargains in the absence of more thoughtful long-term benefits. … More When Rhetoric Clouds the Realities of Russia’s War Part I: Underestimation

Winter Comes to Moscow

A fourth year of war is nearing an end and whereas the aggressor nation has experienced comparatively little of the physical trauma associated with this conflict, circumstances have changed in the current year enough to threaten the Russian Federation’s (RF) own survival. For Vladimir Putin, however, it is not the sentiment of the inhabitants within the broad scope of the RF that matters as much as those who dwell in Moscow. The Russian capital is under threat and not just from imposed international economic sanctions, mounting financial strain, and war fatigue, but to more direct elements that will undermine both civil life and the Kremlin’s authority. And perhaps it’s time for American media to take more notice of Russia’s many vulnerabilities as it contemplates an end to the war. … More Winter Comes to Moscow

Putin’s ‘End of Days’

All the foreseeable advantages afforded Russia since its ill-fated 2022 invasion of Ukraine have been disappearing at an accelerative rate. The illusion of its military prowess with its limitless manpower and technological capabilities should have begun to raise doubts soon after the war began when it met the reality of Ukraine’s two counteroffensives in the latter part of 2022. More to say about the ongoing war immediately below but for Vladimir Putin, military failure is not his worst problem. It’s what awaits him in the last quarter of 2025. A fate reminiscent of the fall of the Russian Empire in 1917 and the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991 hangs in the balance before him now and may ultimately usher the despot and all his ugliness to an ignominious end. … More Putin’s ‘End of Days’

Putin’s Odds (Part 2) – The Nature of People

The key to authoritarian rule in the 21st century is deception, concealing oneself from serious scrutiny while imposing progressive control over society by a variety of means including the establishment of a secret police to enforce guardrails that prevent the dismantling of that control. Yet circumstances arise whereby a black swan wrenches that control away bringing with it the realization of past deception reinforced by all the grievances left unresolved in the sordid affair. This is the recurring story of authoritarian Russia – the 1917 Bolshevik revolution, the dissolution of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (U.S.S.R.) – a story on its way again to ending a corrupt regime in some catastrophic fashion. … More Putin’s Odds (Part 2) – The Nature of People