Tag: #warcrimes

Russia, the Broken

August 18, 2026

Societies are most noticeably disrupted when the regime collapses in a violent coup, a revolution, or is defeated in war. Great empires fall prey to calamity when they run out of the energy that once fueled the dynamism of their origin and sewed the fabric of their society. The insidious process that seems often to lead to these outcomes may be recognized when authoritarian rulers, with their own self-interests in mind, undertake efforts to monopolize power by denying citizens their rights. They do so by undermining independent media, exerting control over the legislative powers meant to directly serve the people, populating the judiciary with justices aligned more with the goals of the executive than the Constitution and by growing a powerful upper class of wealth that facilitates the necessary control of society. After some time has passed, patriotic songs lose their ardor against the backdrop of repression, corruption, disinformation, a massively disproportionate wealth gap, and a decaying social infrastructure. Financial ruin, economic despair, and a failing war effort will accelerate the decline, leaving society in search of hope for a better future that now appears beyond reach. … More Russia, the Broken

A Different War: Modeling Outcome in an Asymmetric and Unconventional War

July 8, 2026

Despite clear superiority in armament, munitions, and troop numbers, favored nations have, not infrequently, fallen far short of expectations when it comes to achieving their ends in war. Many factors can account for this – terrain, morale, logistics, industrial capacity, and finance among others that Carl von Clausewitz alluded to in his influential work, “On War,” published in 1832. More importantly, predictive modeling of outcomes based primarily upon variables drawn from the war experiences of the 19th and 20th centuries appear insufficient in the 21st century. Russia’s old Soviet style of conducting war quickly drew international attention in the early stages of its invasion of Ukraine when it failed to achieve its goal of capturing Kyiv and was forced to retreat into the eastern part of the country where it has remained stalled in large part during the subsequent four years. Several setbacks followed in the wake of rapid innovations in Ukraine’s strategy of resistance that have not only unfolded on the battlefield but in its efforts to undermine Russia’s economy. … More A Different War: Modeling Outcome in an Asymmetric and Unconventional War

Ethnic Animus Within the Russian Federation Toward the Kremlin

June 17, 2026

“Remember my words: Russia will disappear when the Ukrainian sun rises” – Djokhar Dudayev, Revolutionary leader and President of the Chechen Republic of Ichkeria (1991-1996)

Djokhar Dudayev was killed in April 1996 by a Russian missile strike that targeted his whereabouts. Four months later, the First Chechen War (1994–1996) ended with the signing of the Khasavyurt Accords, after Chechen fighters had forced Russian troops out of their capital, Grozny. Chechnya was the first republic to clash with the Kremlin after the Soviet Union dissolved in 1991. The Chechens refused to remain part of a state that had long oppressed them. Under both Tsarist and Soviet rule, mass deportations and repression had eroded their homeland and ethnic identity in the hopes of subduing revival of any nationalist sentiment. In 1999, a brutal military campaign launched by then Prime Minister Vladimir Putin crushed Chechen hopes for sovereignty in the Second Chechen War (1999-2009). Grozny was levelled by indiscriminate aerial bombing, ballistic missile strikes, and a continuous artillery siege of the capital, killing some 8,000 civilians. The campaign strengthened Putin’s position in Moscow, helping secure his rise by popular ascent to an effectively uncontested presidency. … More Ethnic Animus Within the Russian Federation Toward the Kremlin

The Choreography of the Current Ukraine – Russia – U.S. “Peace Talks”

February 8, 2026

The second round of trilateral peace negotiations were held in Abu Dhabi on February 4-5, 2026, following initial talks that had occurred on January 23-24, 2026. A week-long U.S.-brokered ceasefire sparing, specifically, energy infrastructure was announced by the Trump administration on January 29 and would be in effect preceding this second round of talks at a time when winter temperatures had fallen dramatically. Moscow’s interpretation of the ceasefire, however, gave it four days at best and would only involve Kyiv whereas Ukraine was seemingly obliged to give consideration for all of Russia. True to form, during the night of February 2-3, Russia launched upwards of 450 drones and more than 70 missiles, 32 of which were ballistic missiles, specifically targeting energy facilities across 27 sites in at least six regions of Ukraine, disrupting water, electricity and heat. More than 1,170 apartment buildings in Kyiv alone lost heat when outside temperatures had fallen to -4 deg F (-20 deg C). The following night saw a similar attack damaging residential buildings and schools with several casualties. That these attacks heralded the second round of “peace talks” speaks to Vladimir Putin’s disregard for attempts to seek a solution to a war in which he and his Kremlin colleagues continue to perpetuate war crimes that have cumulatively amounted to calls of genocide. … More The Choreography of the Current Ukraine – Russia – U.S. “Peace Talks”

When Rhetoric Clouds the Realities of Russia’s War 
Part II: The Elusive “Ironclad” Security Guarantee

December 19, 2025

The term, “security guarantee,” brings with it a sense of comfort provided a vulnerable nation by other nations with assurances that substantial force will be brought to bear upon an aggressor that threatens its well-being. When the vulnerable nation is not made a member of a group like NATO whose charter expressly defines the obligations of all members to intervene in an expected manner, such “security guarantees” become, over time, a matter of debate, or worse, of inconvenience. … More When Rhetoric Clouds the Realities of Russia’s War Part II: The Elusive “Ironclad” Security Guarantee

When Rhetoric Clouds the Realities of Russia’s War 
Part I: Underestimation

December 8, 2025

It’s easy to understand how the current American buffoonery, clearly manifested at the negotiating table, might make one deeply cynical of diplomacy when it’s seen to be geared toward benefiting the aggressor and an outside dealmaker rather than the victim of the aggression and its supportive neighbor, Europe. The nature of the proposed settlement for ending Russia’s war upon Ukraine seems only to forestall an inevitable resumption of hostility given the historical unreliability of security guarantees, particularly when it comes to Russia. Parallels are seen with the Trump Administration’s recent bungling of trade agreements with China in wild pursuit of bargains in the absence of more thoughtful long-term benefits. … More When Rhetoric Clouds the Realities of Russia’s War Part I: Underestimation

Putin’s ‘End of Days’

September 23, 2025

All the foreseeable advantages afforded Russia since its ill-fated 2022 invasion of Ukraine have been disappearing at an accelerative rate. The illusion of its military prowess with its limitless manpower and technological capabilities should have begun to raise doubts soon after the war began when it met the reality of Ukraine’s two counteroffensives in the latter part of 2022. More to say about the ongoing war immediately below but for Vladimir Putin, military failure is not his worst problem. It’s what awaits him in the last quarter of 2025. A fate reminiscent of the fall of the Russian Empire in 1917 and the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991 hangs in the balance before him now and may ultimately usher the despot and all his ugliness to an ignominious end. … More Putin’s ‘End of Days’

Putin’s Russia – Repression, Brutalism, Terrorism, and All That

June 22, 2025

An old Russia thrives in the here and now. Several undesirable features of past centuries of authoritarian rule prevail as standard practice in the current Russia. The repression of tsarist autocracy with its early institutionalized secret police became more pervasive in 20th century Soviet society. The latter gave way to Stalinist terror of which some of the worst elements are reflected in Vladimir Putin’s 21st century Russia. And now, Russian chauvinism has found new expression in a regime composed of self-dealing, servile functionaries whose devotion to their resident despot remains a top priority. … More Putin’s Russia – Repression, Brutalism, Terrorism, and All That

The Argument for a Reconstituted Ukraine as it was Before Putin

April 27, 2025

A nation’s viability as an autonomous, self-sustaining, and prospering entity depends upon the ongoing welfare of its people, its natural resources, a balanced governance, the ability to defend itself and its neighbors from foreign threat, a shared intelligence with its allies, and fair-minded reciprocal trade relations. For Ukraine, the road has been not just difficult but treacherous, the latter to do with Russia and, specifically, Vladimir Putin. Of all the justifications given for Russia’s invasion, none measure up for anyone but those who either perversely peddle Kremlin propaganda or who lack understanding of the historical background of the region and the detail of the events that actually transpired during the several years before the conflict. I would leave all these latter arguments that itemize the relevant issues to previously published material in order to focus on why Ukraine must remain whole rather than be disassembled by an ill-advised peace treaty. … More The Argument for a Reconstituted Ukraine as it was Before Putin

Putin’s Deceit: Ukraine, Belarus and the Road to Eastern Europe

April 14, 2025

Europe’s moment has come and action is called for in the face of Russia’s continued aggression in Ukraine as U.S. commitment predictably gives ground to its longstanding adversary. Vladimir Putin’s imperialist designs are committed first to bringing both Ukraine and Belarus back into Russia’s fold before considering the options of returning the nations of the Baltic region and Eastern Europe under Russian hegemony. That doesn’t mean to say Putin is not meddling elsewhere to cause instability within Europe as in the Western Balkan nations, Germany, Romania, Poland, France, the United Kingdom and still other nations. … More Putin’s Deceit: Ukraine, Belarus and the Road to Eastern Europe