Overview of Current Global and Regional Aspects Concerning Russia’s War in Ukraine
Part II: Russia and Europe

Russia has long engaged in a campaign of disinformation, government and electoral interference and outright sabotage in Europe. It has done so in an attempt to weaken resolve and undermine NATO defensive coordination. The disappointing performance of Russia’s military during the past year and the precarious state of its economy is likely to place greater emphasis upon its need to at least succeed with its malign efforts in Europe at large. It must do so in order that it not expose itself to what it perceives to be even greater vulnerabilities to its west. Much of this is perception more than it is reality, but Russia remains immersed in its own propaganda that the West presents an eternal threat to its existence. The reality, in fact, is that the regime itself, more than the nation it rules, feels threatened and is prepared to take what action is needed to preserve itself whatever the consequences for its people. … More Overview of Current Global and Regional Aspects Concerning Russia’s War in Ukraine Part II: Russia and Europe

The Naysayer Pundits and the Future of Ukraine

It is common in a protracted conflict to witness approaches attempting to bring about what is thought to be a reasonable compromise. The intent is to forego further suffering but too often the conflict in question has been unjustifiably executed as part of an agenda by a clear aggressor. Some pundits will declare the inevitability of a particular outcome of a conflict based upon straightforward metrics having to do with population size, military reserve and production capacity. These typically argue in favor of the aggressor. In the process, they lay aside the consequences for the victim of the aggression and its future precarious state of affairs. They allow the world order to proceed without acknowledging that the root of the problem remains much as it was from the start. … More The Naysayer Pundits and the Future of Ukraine

Putin’s Odds (Part 1) – The Dissonance of War and Economy

Russia’s war of aggression in Ukraine is beset by a confluence of several factors, some apparent and others not so much, each with their own dynamic and shifting significance. The thing about chaos is its relative unpredictability in acute circumstances. The consequent unpredictability makes it difficult to foresee where and when a point of criticality is reached that will dictate an end to the conflict or determine a clear and inevitable path to that end. … More Putin’s Odds (Part 1) – The Dissonance of War and Economy

Domestic Putin (Part 2)

The perception of performance of a totalitarian regime centers entirely upon its leader. The attributions of success and failure all find their way to that leader ultimately to provide some reckoning as to whether the costs of submission were worth the necessary sacrifice of individual and societal liberties. Given sufficient time, as these attributes accumulate upon the balance sheet of history, a decision is rendered, from the outside and within, of whether history smiles upon that leader and, accordingly, the complicit nation in question, or turns away in disgust. Seen from without, Vladimir Putin’s Russia is acknowledged now by most nations as belligerent and threatening, devoid of humanity, and untrustworthy. From within, with its current trajectory, it is destined to become a failed state, contaminated by an innate and inherent corruption and incapable of adequately delivering the basic services needed for several of its widespread territories. After more than 20 years, Putin’s leadership has brought shame upon Russia and its people and economic circumstances that will continue to haunt the country in succeeding generations. It is time to look at Putin’s Russia from within. … More Domestic Putin (Part 2)