Tag: #Crimea

The Time Has Come for Decisiveness in Ukraine

June 11, 2024

Since its inception and until recently, an asymmetric war has been underway in Ukraine. It has sparked remarkable innovation on the part of Ukraine but has also prevented its military from conducting their war effort with the same strategic options and advantages available to the Russian invader. Defensive weaponry was provided early in the course of the war and used with great effect to repel the Russians from much of their initial territorial gains.   … More The Time Has Come for Decisiveness in Ukraine

Misjudgments About the War in Europe

April 12, 2024

A recent troubling development has come to public attention regarding pressure placed upon Ukraine by the United States (U.S.) to end its targeting of Russian oil refineries, storage depots and port facilities in response to Russia’s invasion and its unceasing attacks on civilian infrastructure. Global oil prices have trended upward to 15% currently and may effect U.S. gasoline prices in the course of the year, escalating inflation concerns as yet another consequence of Russian malfeasance. In the end, protracting this conflict with decision-making in the West that falls short of the mark does little to bring Ukraine or the world some promise of a decisive conclusion with restoration of a sovereign nation. … More Misjudgments About the War in Europe

Putin’s Odds (Part 3) – Hopes of a Dictator

February 18, 2024

Like-minded authoritarian leaders seem inclined to form alliances to provide some assurance that their conduct, however corrupt and brutal, at least finds approval by their colleagues. These leaders tend to find their own justification in the role they have played in advancing some national purpose. It is actually more the case that they have elevated themselves to a place that allows them to adopt any form of aberrant conduct necessary to achieve goals more suitable for themselves than their nations. When such goals are threatened, as inevitably occurs, the desperate dictator will reach out to his authoritarian colleagues for support hoping it to be available for the duration of his troubles. … More Putin’s Odds (Part 3) – Hopes of a Dictator

Putin’s Odds (Part 1) – The Dissonance of War and Economy

January 30, 2024

Russia’s war of aggression in Ukraine is beset by a confluence of several factors, some apparent and others not so much, each with their own dynamic and shifting significance. The thing about chaos is its relative unpredictability in acute circumstances. The consequent unpredictability makes it difficult to foresee where and when a point of criticality is reached that will dictate an end to the conflict or determine a clear and inevitable path to that end. … More Putin’s Odds (Part 1) – The Dissonance of War and Economy

Funding a War of Resistance 2022-2024

November 26, 2023

Several members of the United States (U.S.) House of Representatives are opposed to the notion that Ukraine requires their support in its war of resistance against Russia arguing, ostensibly, that enough has been provided to-date, that budget priorities should be directed elsewhere while repeating a narrative, without justification, that the distribution of aid to Ukraine has been mismanaged and much has been wasted in the process. The arguments are disingenuous, no more than contrived political statements that demonstrate a profound ignorance of the global consequences of their proposed inaction. … More Funding a War of Resistance 2022-2024

The Kaliningrad Oblast – A Time to Detach?

April 1, 2023

What makes this particular border of interest is an outcome of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. In response to its violation of international law, the European Union (EU), to which Lithuania belongs, imposed sanctions that have caused Lithuania itself to close its borders to certain goods traded by Russia or to transport of materiel otherwise designated. With its standard self-righteous script of indignation, Russia has threatened Lithuania with retribution, yet to be formulated, apparently. There is more to this, however, as the Kaliningrad Oblast happens to be of strategic military importance for Russia. It provides the only ice-free winter port for Russia’s navy on the Baltic Sea; that is, until climate change exerts its influence on the matter. … More The Kaliningrad Oblast – A Time to Detach?

Moldova and the Putin Playbook

March 11, 2023

Moldova, a nation of 2.62 million people, shares a 759-mile border with Ukraine to the latter’s southwest. It emerged from a troubled history in the 20th century having gained its independence in 1991 from the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR), only to be threatened again by Russian authoritarianism and imperialist aspirations as it enters the 21st. The country possesses a pro-Russian separatist territory to its east, a situation not unlike its neighbor, Ukraine, that is now in open conflict with Russia and also not unlike that in the Republic of Georgia, invaded by Russia in 2008 for similar reasons. The pattern is quite familiar and it underlines Russia’s intent to retake territory that history has somehow proclaimed belongs to it. … More Moldova and the Putin Playbook

A History of Ukrainian Nationalism and its Partisan Movement

February 11, 2023

Global responses to efforts by Russia to label Ukrainians as Nazis have ranged from polite disbelief to cynical laughter over yet another clumsy propagandist attempt to justify its need to invade Ukraine. The label has served as a way of dehumanizing a people for daring to oppose what Putin believes to be Russia’s destiny. This opposition is, in reality, an expression of nationalism, an ideology that emphasizes loyalty, devotion or allegiance to a nation according to Britannica. Ukrainian resistance to Russian oppression has existed since the time of the Russian Empire dating back to the 18th and 19th centuries but, in the present day, it is convenient for Putin’s regime to conflate Ukraine’s sense of nationhood with fascist ideology. … More A History of Ukrainian Nationalism and its Partisan Movement

The Russian Language of Victimization and the Promotion of Vengeance

January 29, 2023

There has been a very consistent pattern of rhetorical atmospherics among prominent Russian officials promoting the notion that they have been threatened by the encroachment upon their border of the sinful West with its democratic ideals. The rhetoric would not have been alien to Otto von Bismarck 150 years ago when he lamented having to confront Russians with their ‘unpredictable stupidity.’ The messaging, however, has been largely, if not wholly, intended for consumption by the Russian populace which, sadly, either believes the nonsense regurgitated by state media, or is obliged to simply tow-the-line as they have been apt to do for centuries. Putin has made use of an undercurrent of Russian nationalism conflating it with the nation’s spiritual faith, to recall its historic struggle most recently against Nazi Germany. The struggle now, as Putin wishes to have Russia see it, is to save itself from Ukraine, a hitherto unknown bastion of neo-Nazism apparently only known to him, which has also chosen to align itself with the West and its assumed pervasive decadence. The shrill and anger of the delivery is meant to obscure the absurdity of the message but falls short for those who understand its intention. … More The Russian Language of Victimization and the Promotion of Vengeance

What Gain by Engagement in this War?

January 5, 2023

The causes of a war often amount to a complicated array of circumstances, misjudgments and intentions of varied priority, some laid out by those with particular biases in the hopes of lessening blame. Yet, on occasion, a perpetrator can be singled out sufficiently to warrant the full measure of scorn that can be afforded. This is Vladimir Putin’s lot and that of Russia for its compliance. The burden of war guilt is a terrible thing as the condemnation that comes with it carries a price, not just economic, but one requiring a moral reckoning within the national conscience. The extent to which this is realized depends upon the degree to which blame is cast upon the leaders and the degree to which they were enabled by the populace, whatever the circumstances. … More What Gain by Engagement in this War?