Kost Elisevich

The causes of a war often amount to a complicated array of circumstances, misjudgments and intentions of varied priority, some laid out by those with particular biases in the hopes of lessening blame. Yet, on occasion, a perpetrator can be singled out sufficiently to warrant the full measure of scorn that can be afforded. This is Vladimir Putin’s lot and that of Russia for its compliance. The burden of war guilt is a terrible thing as the condemnation that comes with it carries a price, not just economic, but one requiring a moral reckoning within the national conscience. The extent to which this is realized depends upon the degree to which blame is cast upon the leaders and the degree to which they were enabled by the populace, whatever the circumstances.

The unprovoked assault by Putin’s Russia upon a sovereign, democratically elected nation, Ukraine, cannot be credibly justified. Russia’s continued prosecution of a war with its accompanying atrocities measured by internal and cross-border mass displacement of people; mass executions; unrestricted and indiscriminate shelling of unprotected residential, medical and educational facilities; destruction of energy infrastructure; the terror of rape, intimidation and torture; the kidnapping and forced resettlement of children in Russia; confiscation of national resources and personal property theft, all amount to readily recognizable war crimes and await retributive justice in its many forms and in a manner that should be wielded with equal force.

Crimes of this magnitude require the alliance of civilized nations to confront the threat posed to the international order. This threat has been made evident most recently by the disruption of food distribution, energy resources, financial security and trade relations notwithstanding the fear of those nations in Russia’s proximity falling victim to its ambitions. The current war, of course, is another chapter in a conflict with Ukraine that began in 2014 with the illegitimate annexation of Crimea after its military occupation. But this is only the latest in a number of criminal acts within Russia and on the world stage for which Putin is yet to be called to account. From the murder of journalists, assassinations on foreign soil to commission of atrocities by state-sponsored mercenaries in Syria, throughout Africa and Latin America, Russia has taken on the mantle of a criminal enterprise and has certainly earned its recognition by the European Parliament as a state sponsor of terror. Putin’s involvement in political affairs of both the United States and Europe reveal his intent to undermine the welfare of nations by creating instability through manipulations of media and illicit financial contributions. In effect, Russia has become regarded as a global pariah as a consequence and, by its current behavior, shows no sign of relenting.

Having witnessed Russian recidivism over the past two decades, it is time to take a more aggressive stance and put an end to this regime and all within it who support its agenda. Otherwise, we will be left to deal with a protracted global state-of-affairs in which endless sums of money and resources are wasted confronting yet other intolerable and unnecessary conflicts initiated by the same bad actor. All that is required now is the provision of appropriate military assistance that both repels any offensive action taken toward Ukraine and removes all Russian military occupying Ukrainian territory, and yes, that includes Crimea. Economic sanctions must be tightened further and penalties applied to all companies providing tax monies to Russia for continuing business relations. Reliance on fossil fuels must be reduced to a minimum with an accelerated timeline. Greater effort must be exerted to track the private assets of Russian oligarchs and government officials. Legislation, where needed, must be amended to allow for these assets to be confiscated. Likewise, the assets of the Central Bank of Russia and those of other state banks must be seized where possible. All such monies must then be applied toward reparations in Ukraine because we know Russia will not do this voluntarily.

What gains have been made to date by our involvement in this conflict and what stands to be gained in the near future?  The most significant for the United States is the one that perhaps does not commonly come first to mind because it is not a material thing. It is that this nation stands upon its principals and has demonstrated to the world once again that it defines itself firmly by its constitution. Its history, for those who have forgotten, had its roots established by a singular desire for self-determination and liberation from repressive rule, a matter that lies at the very center of Ukraine’s struggle with an enemy familiar already to the United States. That same revolutionary sentiment manifest in the cry, “Don’t Tread on Me,” flies above demonstrations in Ukraine and it is this distinctly American thing that matters to the world, galvanizing it for a unified purpose.

It is of critical importance that this sentiment persists in order for support to remain against a common enemy. It is Putin’s fervent hope that this sentiment dwindles in time allowing him to gain what is needed to secure his own legacy. The staying power of Western alliances is often mocked by Putin and those within his regime while they execute an agenda of misinformation and manipulation of “useful idiots” in the West. The Russians tend to feel superior in their resolve, feeling they can withstand economic hardship and military setback over time much better than the liberal West. The problem for Russia here is that it has met more than its match in Ukraine which continues to demonstrate a tenacity for survival forged deeply within its past. Its resilience has been a reminder to all, and particularly the West, of what it means to stand before tyranny.

Despite the Russia’s sense of superiority, the remaining gains made by the United States point to a different impression regarding Russia that are more tangible. One that has stood out over the past year has been the immense scope of its military failure. Not yet a year in the making, the war has cost Russia an estimated 426,880 casualties with 106,720 killed, the rest wounded, in addition to 1,000 prisoners of war according to an assessment by the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU). More than 6,000 combat vehicles as well as more than 3,000 tanks have been destroyed or captured. A third of Russia’s artillery inventory, amounting to 2021 pieces, have been disabled and 283 military aircraft destroyed along with an additional 269 helicopters. On the other hand, an invaluable assessment of Russian military acumen has been taking place in real time. Its chain of command, intelligence capabilities, logistics, unit morale and battlefield strategies, including use of armament, have all been scrutinized and judged relative to that of its adversary. Moreover, the effectiveness of Western armament in the hands of a very capable Ukrainian military force has been on display with valuable lessons learned, all at no cost to the West’s own military personnel.

Another benefit comes in the form of realizing the impact that the global community can have upon a nation that has chosen to act in the way Russia has disturbing the international order with its transgressions. The long-term effect of sanctions provides a timeline for the study of the economic hazards awaiting the perpetrator with the weakening of financial institutions, withdrawal of foreign investment, import-export restrictions, reduction of industrial capacity, unemployment and collapse of both small businesses and major enterprises. Of the several interventions at work currently, a good example is the restriction of the global supply chain related to microtechnology. PKK Milandr, a Russian microelectronics company and part of the military research and development structure, has operated an illicit global microelectronics procurement network identified by the U.S. Department of the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC). Armenian and Taiwanese front companies were used to purchase microelectronic components while a Swiss company coordinated financial transfers to facilitate the operation. Action by OFAC in October 2022 targeted this network, disrupting delivery of much-needed imported microelectronics not only for Russia’s military-industrial complex but for the manufacture of a great many commercial goods on the market.

As the world’s 11^th largest economy, Russia was able to forestall a major collapse with a decline of only 3.4% by the end of 2022, largely through its surplus of funds. This despite more than 1,000 foreign companies, representing about 40% of Russia’s GDP, having either reduced operations or left Russia altogether. As imported supplies become scarce in the current year, Russian industries will reduce productivity. Energy profits from oil and gas export in the previous year look to be cut further in the present and the trend will continue with the accelerated effort to reduce dependence upon this resource. The World Bank, the International Monetary Fund and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development have forecast Russian GDP in 2023 will shrink further by 2.3% to 5.6% with Russian export also continuing to decline significantly. Inflation is estimated to vary from 5% to 6.8%, although a December report by Reuters indicated a peak of 12.1%. A good deal of uncertainty is to be expected as this deterministic analysis may give way to stochastic processes effected by the war. The only certainty provided is that of a downward progression.

Another matter requiring attention and that concerns reparations for Ukraine. There is great opportunity, in particular for those nations that have participated in Ukraine’s efforts to defend itself as well as those that have provided humanitarian aid to be recompensed for their efforts. Russia is clearly at fault and Russia must pay but Russia will not engage. The United Nations General Assembly recently approved a resolution calling Russia be held accountable by paying reparations for the destruction and killing that it has caused. Hence, the monies that become available through seizure of private and public Russian assets should be held in abeyance and distributed in a regulated fashion for the purposes of rebuilding Ukraine. Efforts along these lines are already underway, some already executed, others awaiting legislation. Considerable investment opportunities, contract agreements and the like will afford foreign involvement in the planning and reconstruction of residential communities, roads and bridges, educational and medical facilities, utilities, commercial enterprises, and communications throughout the country.

With reparations will come decisions regarding the future. Once reality has come home to Russia and it has been forced to better understand the meaning of world community, international order and behavior dictated by normative standards in accordance with the United Nations Charter, it will be for Ukraine to decide what is best for itself and for Crimea. If a naval base is to remain, it is unlikely that it will be home to a Russian Black Sea Fleet but rather its Ukrainian counterpart if not an accessory home to the United States Sixth Fleet under NATO. Beyond this, there is strategic commercial value in lessening Crimea’s presence as a military bastion and promoting environmentally responsible development.

If the civilized global community continues unwavering support for Ukraine to its final conclusion of a Russian defeat, it will see the end of Putin’s imperialism and belligerence and the beginning of a new world order that brings security and foundation to normative behavior. It must not allow the moment to slip away and provide opportunity for Putin’s criminal enterprise to undermine the good intentions set forth by the United Nations.

Copyright @Kost Elisevich, MD, PhD 2023. All rights reserved. Any illegal reproduction of this content will result in immediate legal action.