Tag: #War

A Different War: Modeling Outcome in an Asymmetric and Unconventional War

July 8, 2026

Despite clear superiority in armament, munitions, and troop numbers, favored nations have, not infrequently, fallen far short of expectations when it comes to achieving their ends in war. Many factors can account for this – terrain, morale, logistics, industrial capacity, and finance among others that Carl von Clausewitz alluded to in his influential work, “On War,” published in 1832. More importantly, predictive modeling of outcomes based primarily upon variables drawn from the war experiences of the 19th and 20th centuries appear insufficient in the 21st century. Russia’s old Soviet style of conducting war quickly drew international attention in the early stages of its invasion of Ukraine when it failed to achieve its goal of capturing Kyiv and was forced to retreat into the eastern part of the country where it has remained stalled in large part during the subsequent four years. Several setbacks followed in the wake of rapid innovations in Ukraine’s strategy of resistance that have not only unfolded on the battlefield but in its efforts to undermine Russia’s economy. … More A Different War: Modeling Outcome in an Asymmetric and Unconventional War

Knocking Russia Down to Size: Ukraine’s Cross-Border Offensive

August 29, 2025

Within its borders, Ukraine confronts Russia’s military forces in the east and southeast and, otherwise, defends its civilians throughout the country from Russia’s aerial attacks upon its cities. Vladimir Putin’s war has primarily distilled into two immediate strategies: 1. capture and hold ground, particularly in the Donbas, in order to fully occupy some of the oblasts in the eastern territories, and 2. terrorize Ukrainian citizens to weaken their resolve and sue for peace. Over the past 3.5 years, Ukraine with the support of over 40 nations worldwide, has withstood the Russian assault upon its sovereignty and its people with the sort of resilience normally attributed to a comparatively much larger nation. It has managed this not only by courage manifest in battle but through cunning, innovation and remarkable boldness in execution. Whereas Putin has concentrated his efforts upon indiscriminate destruction of civilian life and infrastructure and the deliberate sacrifice of Russian troops for limited territorial gain, Ukraine has undertaken the highly strategic tact of undermining his war industry and the money supporting it. … More Knocking Russia Down to Size: Ukraine’s Cross-Border Offensive